Materials of the International Conference
50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
and Electronic Geophysical Year

16-19 September 2007 • Suzdal, Russia

Possible regional consequences of global climate changes

I. I. Mokhov

A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

Possible global and regional climate changes in the 21st century are estimated for different scenarios of natural and anthropogenic influences. Ensembles of simulations with a coupled general circulation models are analyzed together with simulations of the IAP RAS global climate model and more detailed regional simulations. Differences in climate model estimates due to interaction with the carbon cycle are discussed. Together with temperature changes the changes in precipitation, river runoff, characteristics of bio-production of land ecosystems are estimated. Also risks of climate extremes like extreme precipitation, droughts and fires are evaluated. Effects of solar activity are discussed. Relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors is analyzed, in particular for regions with largest temperature changes during last decades.

Citation: I. I. Mokhov (2007), Possible regional consequences of global climate changes, in: Materials of the International Conference '50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year and Electronic Geophysical Year', GC RAS, Moscow, doi:10.2205/2007-IGY50conf.

© 2007 Geophysical Center RAS and authors


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