Materials of the International Conference
50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
and Electronic Geophysical Year

16-19 September 2007 • Suzdal, Russia

The basic results and prospects of MEE algorithm for the medium-term forecast of earthquakes

A. D. Zavyalov

Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The international geophysical year (1957–1958) has given a powerful pulse to development of geophysical researches in the USSR. Under its aegis detailed seismological supervision in sesmoactive areas of Soviet Union: on the Far East (east coast of Kamchatka, Kuriles), Caucasus, the Baikal region have been started. One of the important results of geophysical year for seismology was creation of a seismic stations network which became a basis of the future Uniform Network of Seismic Supervisions of USSR (UNSS), nowadays functioning within the framework of Geophysical Service of Russian Academy of Science. Earthquake catalogues of UNSS/GS RAS of different level of detail became the basic information base for revealing regularities of seismic process and development of various algorithms for strong earthquakes forecast. In the work the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) algorithm for the medium-term forecast of the earthquakes, based on use of a complex of various geology-geophysical predictors, created in the middle of 80th in IPE RAS, is described. Results of its 20-years testing in various seismoactive regions of the world with different characteristics: Caucasus, Kamchatka, Kirghizia, Turkmenia, Southern California, NE and SW China, Greece, the Western Turkey, Kuriles are discussed. Possible prospects of the further development of algorithm are discussed. The scheme of the forecast of earthquakes in which various algorithms and predictors are consistently used is offered.

Citation: A. D. Zavyalov (2007), The basic results and prospects of MEE algorithm for the medium-term forecast of earthquakes, in: Materials of the International Conference '50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year and Electronic Geophysical Year', GC RAS, Moscow, doi:10.2205/2007-IGY50conf.

© 2007 Geophysical Center RAS and authors


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