50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
and Electronic Geophysical Year
16-19 September 2007 • Suzdal, Russia
The solar geoeffective phenomena: Influence on the Earth's environment space and the possibility of their forecastV. N. Ishkov Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Russia
Solar researches of last decade have not left doubt, that the geoeffective phenomena on the Sun, influencing a condition of a Earth's environment space, are exclusively large flare events and coronal holes. By a class of the flare events we mean:
– solar flares with all spectrum of mass and radiation movement dynamic displays in all ranges of an electromagnetic spectrum;
– ejections of solar filament with all phenomena accompanying them.
The forecast of the geoeffective solar phenomena here is understood as set of all kinds of forecasts which problem includes calculation of processes development and the phenomena occurring in a solar atmosphere both directly influencing magnetic and radiating conditions in a Earth's environment space on set intervals of time. The interval of time on which the forecast is possible, is defined by physical processes of the magnetic fields interaction and laws of occurrence and evolution of solar structures in which there are considered geoeffective phenomena. Electromagnetic and plasma disturbances from the solar geoeffective phenomena (flare event, coronal holes) through a solar wind extend in a heliosphere, influence on planet magnetospheres, their satellites, small bodies of solar system (asteroids, comets) and are caused with significant deviations from a background, quiet condition practically all layers of atmospheres and surfaces of considered objects. The full chain of disturbances from separate large flare event can be presented in the form of three separate stages of influence: 1. Electromagnetic impact breaks radio communication in an ionosphere because of flux radiation in UF and soft X-ray growth: R1–R5. 2. Solar proton events raise a level of radiating danger when there is an intrusion of significant fluxes of the solar charged particles: S1–S5. 3. Magnetic storms: The disturbances in a geomagnetic field which are caused by arrival to environment of a solar wind the disturbance structures: G1–G5. The opportunity of forecasting of the geoeffective solar phenomena and their influences on environment is based on results of the analysis of laws:
– emergences of new magnetic fluxes in an atmosphere of the Sun, their physical characteristics, character of their interaction with already existing magnetic field;
– time distribution of greater flares within the limits of the active regions localization;
– time and spatial distribution of solar filament ejections (DSF);
– formations, distributions and evolutions solar coronal holes (CH).
Agents the environment causing disturbances are:
– transient structures (coronal mass ejections) being consequence of active processes in flares and filament ejections;
– the solar wind high-speed streams of the solar plasma following a shock wave from large solar flares events or expiring from areas with an open configuration of a magnetic field (CH).
The forecast has begun disturbances in the environment and their duration from flare event is possible for the period from 1 till 5 day, and from coronal holes – for the period of one solar rotation (27.3 day). It enables to plan a various sort technological, biological and medical experiments and protective actions for a command and devices of space laboratories.Citation: V. N. Ishkov (2007), The solar geoeffective phenomena: Influence on the Earth's environment space and the possibility of their forecast, in: Materials of the International Conference '50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year and Electronic Geophysical Year', GC RAS, Moscow, doi:10.2205/2007-IGY50conf. © 2007 Geophysical Center RAS and authors