Materials of the International Conference
50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
and Electronic Geophysical Year

16-19 September 2007 • Suzdal, Russia

Extreme seismic events: From basic science to preventive disaster management

A. T. Ismail-Zadeh1, 2

1Geophysical Institute, University, Karlsruhe, Germany

2International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

Extreme seismic events (e.g., 1755 Lisbon, 1906 San Francisco or 2004 Aceh-Sumatra earthquakes) are a manifestation of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Driven by mantle convection these lithospheric blocks are involved into relative movement, resulting in stress localization and earthquakes. Despite the lithosphere behaves as a large non-linear system, featuring instability and deterministic chaos, some integral empirical regularities emerge, indicating a wide range of similarity, collective behavior, and the possibility for earthquake prediction. Large earthquakes are surprising, and society, as a matter of fact, is poorly prepared to deal with them. Protecting human life and property against earthquake disasters requires an uninterrupted chain of research and civil protection tasks: from (i) understanding of physics of earthquakes, their analysis and monitoring, through (ii) interpretation, modeling, seismic hazard assessment, and earthquake prediction, to (iii) delivery the scientific forecasts to local authorities, public awareness, preparedness, and preventive disaster management.

Citation: A. T. Ismail-Zadeh (2007), Extreme seismic events: From basic science to preventive disaster management, in: Materials of the International Conference '50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year and Electronic Geophysical Year', GC RAS, Moscow, doi:10.2205/2007-IGY50conf.

© 2007 Geophysical Center RAS and authors


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