Materials of the International Conference
50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
and Electronic Geophysical Year

16-19 September 2007 • Suzdal, Russia

Sustainable development global simulation: Opportunities and treats to the planet

M. Z. Zgurovsky

National Technical University of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine

Abstract

A system of factors (indices and indicators) and a new method of quantitative and qualitative evaluation are developed. This system, named "Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix" (SDGM) and data presented by reliable international organizations culminated in a Global Simulation regarding quality of life and security of the world population. Specifically, this study focuses on applying SDGM to analysis of the Systematic Regularity of World Conflicts over the Course of Time. A prognosis is detailed of the next world conflict, labeled the "Conflict of XXI Century", and an analysis is provided of its nature and main characteristics; duration, main phases of the conflict and intensity. This prognosis details a set of basic global threats that spawn this conflict. Using cluster analysis, its influence on different countries of the world is accurately defined. Inferences are drawn from specific hypotheses as to possible scenarios occurring during the systemic conflict and after its conclusion.

Citation: M. Z. Zgurovsky (2007), Sustainable development global simulation: Opportunities and treats to the planet, in: Materials of the International Conference '50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year and Electronic Geophysical Year', GC RAS, Moscow, doi:10.2205/2007-IGY50conf.

© 2007 Geophysical Center RAS and authors


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